Saturday, December 3, 2011

Air conditioners all the way down

A well-known scientist (some say it was Bertrand Russell) once gave a public lecture on astronomy. He described how the earth orbits around the
sun and how the sun, in turn, orbits around the centre of a vast collection of stars called our galaxy. 
At the end of the lecture, a little old lady at
the back of the room got up and said: "What you have told us is rubbish.
The world is really a flat plate supported on the back of a giant
tortoise." 
The scientist gave a superior smile before replying, "What is
the tortoise standing on?" 
"You're very clever, young man, very clever,"
said the old lady. "But it's turtles all the way down."


I came across this interesting inaction rationale in the latest Economist analysis of Durban:
Recent work by, among others, Michael Greenstone at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology backs that approach. It shows that hot spells kill few people in air-conditioned America; but in India, where 300m have no access to electricity, the death toll is huge. India’s priority is to provide its people with electricity, and one day air-conditioners. That this will increase its emissions is less a problem for India than for the world. It therefore views any suggestion that it should be bound to curb its emissions as a threat.
Assuming that is indeed a line of argument in India (and the Economist is usually quite reliable) I was interested in how practical this approach might be, so I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations. Readers should feel free to point out obvious errors. Here we go:

There are about 1.2 billion people in India. That number is expected to rise to 1.6 billion by 2050. Let's say we want to protect them from global warming by providing them with central air in their homes and businesses (we could preserve their lives by, say, cooling a single room in their homes and making them all rest and sleep there, but let's assume they don't want to lead that sort of miserable existence.) Let's estimate about 200 million households needed residential air; there will probably be more than that by 2050, but let's be conservative. Some of them may live in cool regions; some already have air conditioning, factoring in to India's current power costs and greenhouse gas emissions, which for the record are:

India (thousands of tons of CO2): 1,742,698

We will also give them 50m commercial systems; they can't spend all day in their houses. We don't need people dropping from heat stroke in the factories, offices, the call centers and the banks.

Using this helpful wikipedia article, I estimated the residential systems would need about 3 tons of refrigeration, while I estimated the commercial systems very conservatively at 10 tons. One ton of refrigeration consumes 3,517 Watts whilst in operation (assuming an seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER) of 10). So residential systems consume roughly 10,000W, and commercial systems 35,000W (there is no point in false precision when we are throwing around estimates like this.)

A standard estimate for the use of air conditioning is a thousand hours per year (eight hours a day times a hot season of 125 days). That seems reasonable. That puts us at (10Kw * 1000 hours * 200,000,000 systems) = 2.0 * 10^12 Kw-h for the residential, plus (35Kw * 1000 hours * 50,000,000 systems) = 1.75 * 10^12 Kw-h for the commercial, totaling 3.75 * 10^12 Kwh of electricity required.

So how much is that? Well, at eight cents a Kwh, that power will run you $300 billion dollars a year (20% of India's present-day GDP; even if the economy grew by 300% in short order, they would still be spending 5% of their GDP on air conditioners). But more importantly, at an average emissions density for fossil fuel electricity of 750g (I love wikipedia) that air conditioning generates greenhouse gas emissions of:

India air conditioning alone (thousands of tons of CO2): 2,812,500

That's two and a half times India's current emissions. It's roughly 10% of the total global emissions in 2010. In other words, relative to the 80% emissions cut needed by 2050 to (hopefully) stabilize the climate in the short term, the CO2 emissions of Indian air conditioning would consume half of humanity's global CO2 budget.

The alternative is to keep emitting and keep warming -- and keep building air conditioners, and burning fossil fuels to power them, accelerating the warming further. Eventually we will need to run the air conditions harder, and longer, to deal with warming of +4C, +5C, or even more -- driving the cost and the emissions even higher (while we are also paying to resettle climate refugees, relocate coastal towns, and fight the spread of tropical diseases). Of course, we can't air condition our crops, we can't air condition every home in Africa or South America or the rest of Asia. But other than that, smooth sailing. It's air conditioners all the way down.

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    Ų§Ł„Ł‡ŁˆŲ§Ų” Ų§Ł„Ų±Ų§ŁƒŲÆ من اكثر المسببات Ł„Ł„Ų±ŁˆŲ§Ų­ Ų§Ł„ŁƒŲ±ŁŠŁ‡Ł‡ فى Ų§Ł„Ł…ŁƒŲ§Ł† ŁˆŁ…Ł† اكثر Ų§Ł„Ų§Ų“ŁŠŲ§Ų” التى يحتاج الى تجددها فمن افضل الطرق Ł‡Łˆ Ų§Ł„Ł‚ŁŠŲ§Ł… بفتح Ų§Ł„Ų“ŲØŲ§ŲØŁŠŁƒ Ų§Ł„Ł…ŲŖŁˆŲ§Ų¬ŲÆŁ‡ فى Ų§Ł„Ł…ŁƒŲ§Ł† ŁˆŲ§Ł„Ł‚ŁŠŲ§Ł… بفتح الؓفاط Ų§Ł„ŁƒŁ‡Ų±ŲØŲ§Ų¦Ł‰ وتغير Ų§Ł„Ł‡ŁˆŲ§Ų” Ų§Ł„Ł…ŲŖŁˆŲ§ŁƒŲÆ فى Ų§Ł„Ł…ŁƒŲ§Ł† ، او Ų§Ł„Ł‚ŁŠŲ§Ł… بزيوت عطرية ŁˆŁˆŲ¶Ų¹Ł‡Ų§ فى ŲØŲ®Ų§Ų®Ų§ŲŖ ŁˆŲ§Ł„Ł‚ŁŠŲ§Ł… ŲØŲ±Ų“ على Ų§Ł„Ų§Ų±Ų¶ŁŠŲ§ŲŖ ŁˆŲ§Ł„ŁƒŁ†ŲØ ŁˆŲ§Ł„Ų§Ł…Ų§ŁƒŁ† التى ŲØŁŠŁ‡Ų§ روائح ŁƒŲ±ŁŠŁ‡Ł‡ .

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  56. ؓركة دانة الزهراؔ ŁŁ†ŁŠ تكييف Ł…Ų±ŁƒŲ²ŁŠ Ų§Ł„ŁƒŁˆŁŠŲŖ و ŲŖŲµŁ„ŁŠŲ­ وحدات تكييف ŁˆŲµŁŠŲ§Ł†Ų© Ł…ŁƒŁŠŁŲ§ŲŖ و ŲŖŲµŁ„ŁŠŲ­ ثلاجات
    "
    و ŁŁ†ŁŠ ŲŖŲµŁ„ŁŠŲ­ غسالات Ų§ŲŖŁˆŁ…Ų§ŲŖŁŠŁƒ ŲŖŲµŁ„ŁŠŲ­ من ŁŁ†ŁŠŁŠŁ† Ł…Ų¹ŲŖŁ…ŲÆŁŠŁ† على Ł…ŲÆŲ§Ų± 7 Ų£ŁŠŲ§Ł… 24 ساعه Ų®ŲÆŁ…Ų§ŲŖ منزل Ų¬Ł…ŁŠŲ¹ مناطق Ų§Ł„ŁƒŁˆŁŠŲŖ"
    ŁŁ†ŁŠ تكييف

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  57. Company descriptions :-
    Ł…ŁˆŁ‚Ų¹ كويت 24 Ų³Ų§Ų¹Ų© Ł‡Łˆ افضل Ł…ŁˆŁ‚Ų¹ اخباري عربي Ł…ŲŖŲ®ŲµŲµ في Ų§Ų®ŲØŲ§Ų± ŲÆŁˆŁ„Ų© Ų§Ł„ŁƒŁˆŁŠŲŖ ŁˆŲ§Ł„Ų®Ł„ŁŠŲ¬ Ų§Ł„Ų¹Ų±ŲØŁŠ ŁˆŲ§Ł„Ų¹Ų§Ł„Ł… ŲØŲ£ŁƒŁ…Ł„Ł‡، ŲŖŲ§ŲØŲ¹ معنا Ų§Ų®Ų± Ų§Ų®ŲØŲ§Ų± Ų§Ł„ŁƒŁˆŁŠŲŖ لحظة بلحظة.
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  58. ŁŁ†ŁŠ تكييف Ų§Ł„ŁƒŁˆŁŠŲŖ تقدم Ł„ŁƒŁ… Ų¬Ł…ŁŠŲ¹ Ų®ŲÆŁ…Ų§ŲŖ ŁŁ†ŁŠ تكييف ٢٤ ساعه و ŲŖŲµŁ„ŁŠŲ­ Ł…ŁƒŁŠŁŲ§ŲŖ و ŁŁ†ŁŠ تكييف Ł…Ų±ŁƒŲ²ŁŠ Ł‡Ł†ŲÆŁŠ
    ، ŲµŁŠŲ§Ł†Ų© تكييف Ł…Ų±ŁƒŲ²ŁŠ و ŲŖŲµŁ„ŁŠŲ­ تكييف Ł…Ų±ŁƒŲ²ŁŠ و ŲŖŲµŁ„ŁŠŲ­ وحدات تكييف
    تركيب تكييف و ŁƒŁ…ŲØŲ±ŁˆŲ³Ų±Ų§ŲŖ جديد و Ł…Ų³ŲŖŲ§Ł…Ł„ Ų¬Ł…ŁŠŲ¹ مناطق ŲØŲ§Ł„ŁƒŁˆŁŠŲŖ
    ŁŁ†ŁŠ تكييف

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  59. Company descriptions :-
    ŁŁ†ŁŠ تكييف Ų§Ł„ŁƒŁˆŁŠŲŖ تقدم Ł„ŁƒŁ… Ų¬Ł…ŁŠŲ¹ Ų®ŲÆŁ…Ų§ŲŖ ŁŁ†ŁŠ تكييف ٢٤ ساعه و ŲŖŲµŁ„ŁŠŲ­ Ł…ŁƒŁŠŁŲ§ŲŖ و ŁŁ†ŁŠ تكييف Ł…Ų±ŁƒŲ²ŁŠ Ł‡Ł†ŲÆŁŠ
    ، ŲµŁŠŲ§Ł†Ų© تكييف Ł…Ų±ŁƒŲ²ŁŠ و ŲŖŲµŁ„ŁŠŲ­ تكييف Ł…Ų±ŁƒŲ²ŁŠ و ŲŖŲµŁ„ŁŠŲ­ وحدات تكييف
    تركيب تكييف و ŁƒŁ…ŲØŲ±ŁˆŲ³Ų±Ų§ŲŖ جديد و Ł…Ų³ŲŖŲ§Ł…Ł„ Ų¬Ł…ŁŠŲ¹ مناطق ŲØŲ§Ł„ŁƒŁˆŁŠŲŖ
    ŁŁ†ŁŠ تكييف Ł…Ų±ŁƒŲ²ŁŠ

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  65. ŲŖŲ³ŲŖŲ®ŲÆŁ… هذه Ų§Ł„ŲŖŁ‚Ł†ŁŠŲ© في Ų¹Ł…Ł„ŁŠŲ© ŲŖŲ¬Ł…ŁŠŁ„ Ų§Ł„ŁˆŲ¬Ł‡ Ų§Ł„Ų·ŁˆŁŠŁ„ افصل دكتور ŲŖŲ¬Ł…ŁŠŁ„ Ų§Ł„ŁˆŲ¬Ł‡ في Ł…ŲµŲ± ŁˆŲŖŲ³ŲŖŲ®ŲÆŁ… Ų¹Ł…Ł„ŁŠŲ§ŲŖ ŲŖŲ¬Ł…ŁŠŁ„ Ų§Ł„ŁˆŲ¬Ł‡ المختلفة في التخلص من Ų§Ł„ŲŖŲ¬Ų§Ų¹ŁŠŲÆ، أو الذقن Ų§Ł„Ł…Ų²ŲÆŁˆŲ¬ Ų§Ł„ŲÆŁƒŲŖŁˆŲ± Ų­Ų§Ł…ŲÆ Ł‚ŲÆŲ±ŁŠ ŁŠŁ‚ŁˆŁ… Ų§Ł„Ų·ŲØŁŠŲØ المعالج ŲØŲ§Ų³ŲŖŲ®ŲÆŲ§Ł… Ų§Ł„ŲŖŲ®ŲÆŁŠŲ± Ų§Ł„Ł…ŁˆŲ¶Ų¹ŁŠ على المنطقة المراد ŲŖŲ¬Ł…ŁŠŁ„Ł‡Ų§، و ŲŖŲ¹ŲŖŲØŲ±Ų¹Ł…Ł„ŁŠŲ§ŲŖ ŲŖŲ¬Ł…ŁŠŁ„ Ų§Ł„ŁˆŲ¬Ł‡ ŲØŲ§Ł„Ł„ŁŠŲ²Ų± من Ų¹Ł…Ł„ŁŠŲ§ŲŖ Ų“ŲÆ Ų§Ł„ŁˆŲ¬Ł‡ Ł…ŲŖŁˆŲ³Ų·Ų© Ų§Ł„ŲŖŁƒŲ§Ł„ŁŠŁ و ŁŠŁ…ŁŠŲ²Ł‡Ų§ أنها أقل Ų®Ų·Ų±Ų§ من ŲŖŁ‚Ł†ŁŠŲ© Ų¬Ų±Ų§Ų­Ų© ŲŖŲ¬Ł…ŁŠŁ„ Ų§Ł„ŁˆŲ¬Ł‡

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  66. ŁˆŁ…ŁŁŠŲ“ خلاف عن Ł…ŁŠŁ„ معظمنا لل؄طلاله Ų§Ł„Ų¹ŲµŲ±ŁŠŲ© ŁˆŲÆŁ‡ Ų§Ł„Ł„ŁŠ ŲØŲŖŁˆŁŲ±Ł‡ Ų§Ł„ŁˆŲ¬Ł‡Ų§ŲŖ Ų§Ł„Ų²Ų¬Ų§Ų¬ŁŠŲ© ŲØŲŖŁŲ§ŲµŁŠŁ„Ł‡Ų§ ŁˆŲ£Ų“ŁƒŲ§Ł„Ł‡Ų§ المختلفة ŁˆŲ£Ł†Ų§Ł‚ŲŖŁ‡Ų§ ŲØŲŖŲ®Ł„ŁŠ Ų§Ł„Ł…ŁƒŲ§Ł† ŁŠŁ†ŲŖŁ‚Ł„ Ł„Ł…Ų³ŲŖŁˆŁ‰ ŲŖŲ§Ł†ŁŠ خالص تضيف Ų§ŲŖŲ³Ų§Ų¹ Ł„Ł„Ł…ŁƒŲ§Ł† ورؤية أوضح و؄ضاؔة مناسبة ده بجانب Ų³Ł‡ŁˆŁ„Ų© ŲŖŁ†ŲøŁŠŁŁ‡Ų§ ŁˆŁ…ŲŖŲ§Ł†Ų© الخامات المصنعه Ł…Ł†Ł‡Ų§ŁˆŁ…ŲŖŲ§Ł†Ų© الخامات المصنعه منها حتى المرافق Ų§Ł„ŲŖŲ±ŁŁŠŁ‡ŁŠŲ© ؓركات تركيب ŁˆŲ§Ų¬Ł‡Ų§ŲŖ فنادق زجاجية ŁˆŲ§Ł„Ų®ŲÆŁ…Ų§ŲŖŁŠŲ© Ł…Ų«Ł„ المطاعم ŁˆŲ§Ł„Ų­ŲÆŲ§Ų¦Ł‚ ŁŠŁ…ŲŖŁ„Łƒ مهندس Ų§Ł„ŲÆŁŠŁƒŁˆŲ± لمسة ŁŁ†ŁŠŲ© Ł…Ł…ŁŠŲ²Ų© ŁˆŲ°ŁˆŁ‚ Ų®Ų§Ųµ ؓركة Ų³ŁƒŲ“Ł† Ł„Ł„ŁˆŲ§Ų¬Ł‡Ų§ŲŖ لهذا نعتمد Ų¹Ł„ŁŠŁ‡ طالما رغبنا ŲŖŲµŁ…ŁŠŁ… ديكور منزلنا Ł…Ų«Ł„ًŲ§ حيث Ł†Ł‚ŁˆŁ… ŲØŲ“Ų±Ų­ Ų§Ł„ŲŖŲµŁ…ŁŠŁ… للمهندس ŁˆŁ‡Łˆ ŁŠŲŖŁƒŁŁ„ أمر ŲŖŁ‚ŲÆŁŠŁ… الاقتراحات ŁˆŲŖŲ­ŁˆŁŠŁ„ Ų£ŁŁƒŲ§Ų±Ł†Ų§ ŁˆŲ£ŁŁƒŲ§Ų±Ł‡ على Ų£Ų±Ų¶ Ų§Ł„ŁˆŲ§Ł‚Ų¹.

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  67. Ł…Ų±ŁƒŲ² ŁƒŁˆŁ„ Ų³ŁƒŲ§Ł† للأؓعة

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