Lately ENSO has been teasing us with a halting, stop-go flirtation with El Nino conditions. It certainly seems like we're due, given the preceding double-dip La Nina, something which, as I wrote last year, is already an unusual event. But then there's this:
Really? Another La Nina? How weird is that?
Actually it has never happened since NOAA started keeping records. Sixty years ago. Talk about your global weirding.
NOAA still rates a weak El Nino as more likely than a return to La Nina conditions. But it's modestly amazing to me that a triple-dip is even a realistic possibility. Come what may, eventually we're going to see a strong El Nino again. The longer we wait, the more profound and record-shattering the ensuing temperatures are likely to be.
Really? Another La Nina? How weird is that?
Actually it has never happened since NOAA started keeping records. Sixty years ago. Talk about your global weirding.
NOAA still rates a weak El Nino as more likely than a return to La Nina conditions. But it's modestly amazing to me that a triple-dip is even a realistic possibility. Come what may, eventually we're going to see a strong El Nino again. The longer we wait, the more profound and record-shattering the ensuing temperatures are likely to be.
(sarc> not weird at all. this is a part of the 60-120 year NAO oscillation that drives the weather around the world despite being located at approximately 180 degrees east and approximately 30-70° north of the "energy bank of the planet" the El Nino subsidence areas. What we should do is to find out where the sinking hot water goes and avoid those in marine thermal energy production. I suggest drilling the Arctic for coal.</sarc)
ReplyDeleteOK, I order not to offend NAO researchers, imho cyclical NAO-PDO might exist but be connected to the surges of cold water from melting/calving glaciers around Antarctica/Greenland. There's no demanstration of a mechanism that would make this possible oscillation arise solely from deep ocean, that is pretty uniform and changing slowly as far as I know. If there's another mechanism that drives the deep cold water up other than rotation of the earth (upwelling against continental sheet margins) or the THC please let me know. the THC could have a long-period cyclical component but something must drive this.
ReplyDelete(anon. #1)
http://eas8001.eas.gatech.edu/papers/Cobb_Nature_2003.pdf seems to be pretty comprehensive and thorough if one wants to start to delve on the regularities/irregularities of ENSO.
ReplyDelete(anon. #1)
Slightly OT, but since the anons mention NAO and PDO. What about NAO, PDO and AMO widgets below the AO-index on the right?
ReplyDeleteand just brainstorming: cold pdo, warm climate, possibly more frequent and more persistent La Nina? no mechanism at hand, but...