Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Open Mind calls it

I have to give a shout out to Tamino at Open Mind, who call the low point of Arctic ice within 1% of the true value. Amazing! He predicted 4.78 million km^2. The actual value was 4.81 million km^2.

Needless to say, he kicked denier butt on this one -- Anthony Watts and Steve Goddard, whose frequent posts on the state of the Arctic brightened our summer, missed the mark by 960,000 km^2 (High or low? Do you have to ask?)

Besides demonstrating yet again the value of recognizing the reality of global warming when making predictions about the physical world, what's notable about Tamino's eerile accurate prediction is that he generated it by plotting an exponential decline in the Arctic ice cover -- that is, in popular terms, a death spiral.

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