Sunday, March 14, 2010

Think global warming is a myth? Head over to Intrade and make some money

Over at Intrade, the odds are running five-to-one in favor of 2010 being one of the five hottest years on record (as measured by GIStemp). If you believe that there's no warming trend, global cooling has begun, etc., this should be easy money if you're right. The odds of 2010 being one of the five warmest years by simple chance variation is 5/131 (3.8%). But Intrade is pricing the contract as if the chance were 82% -- greater by a factor of twenty!

Or maybe you want to play it safe -- betting only against 2010 being the hottest year ever recorded (see the new widget on the right). The odds of this happening by chance are only 1/131 -- 0.76%. But as of tonight, Intrade has it as an even-money bet! All you have to do to double your money is to bet (and be right in betting) that this will not be the hottest year since record-keeping began in the 19th century. Easy!

Of course, January and February were both the second hottest months ever recorded in GIStemp. So the short end of the bet is not looking good. But be bold! Clearly investors have bought into this whole "warming" scam and are ready to put their money are the table.

Aren't you?

2 comments:

  1. When Intrade offers an ENSO-adjusted version of that trade using a more credible dataset than the utterly laughable GISS, let me know.

    ReplyDelete
  2. We've had many El Nino years -- this one is nothing special. Why, in the absence of global warming, should this year be the warmest in 130 years, warmer than any of the last ten El Ninos? At best, there's a 9% chance of that. Yet, Intrade's odds on the hottest year ever are at 60%. Funny, that.

    The GISS dataset gives near-identical results to HADCRUT and the satellite data (both versions) over the areas observed. The (minor) differences occur in how the different algorithms "fill in" the holes in their coverage.

    It's a common tactic among deniers to deal with evidence damning to their position by sneering at it. Truth is, GISS temperature data is extremely accurate, the hockey stick has been validated repeatedly, and Mann and Hansen have more scientific chops between them than every denier on the face of the planet. Also, Al Gore made a pretty good movie about climate change. Heaping ill-informed scorn on these facts will not make them go away.

    ReplyDelete