tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718772691289114123.post11007313206006782..comments2024-09-07T00:14:51.334-07:00Comments on Idiot Tracker: Lucia's sadly selective statistical showpersonship TheTrackerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10011829472333355911noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718772691289114123.post-31194217124005574002018-06-27T21:38:47.168-07:002018-06-27T21:38:47.168-07:00thanks againthanks againDelta Rafanihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11959315081246333181noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718772691289114123.post-4925331650395765852016-03-13T21:42:16.820-07:002016-03-13T21:42:16.820-07:00Nice! I'll add it to the post.Nice! I'll add it to the post.TheTrackerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10011829472333355911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718772691289114123.post-70053343529939011512016-03-13T21:35:15.061-07:002016-03-13T21:35:15.061-07:00Here's a quick update of Lucia's graph, us...<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2ylf-vP0EkI/VuY9ucT2vxI/AAAAAAAAAEI/OCrvrM9oHRk8WPCe-tqgE7Uj296k3mRGw/s1600/lucia.png" rel="nofollow">Here's a quick update</a> of Lucia's graph, using the same 13-month running mean as she did. I didn't bother to include error bars on the multi-model mean, and it's GISTEMP only, but it gets the point across. GISTEMP trend is .17 K/decade from 2000 to present.<br /><br />Bear in mind that, as it's a running mean, the GISTEMP line ends in August 2015. So expect it to continue heading upwards for a while yet.MartinMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12378483250151121375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718772691289114123.post-27390381434505601822016-03-13T11:23:39.473-07:002016-03-13T11:23:39.473-07:00I hope the baseline is right. I calculated GISTEMP...I hope the baseline is right. I calculated GISTEMP's average anomaly from 1980-1999 (+0.32C) & subtracted that from the current anomalies. But now that I'm looking at it again I think I forgot to subtract it from 2015. I'll fix it, thanks!TheTrackerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10011829472333355911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6718772691289114123.post-31440780710578392172016-03-13T06:24:49.159-07:002016-03-13T06:24:49.159-07:00Are you sure you got the baseline right? Most figu...Are you sure you got the baseline right? Most figures I have seen had 2015 around the multi-model mean temperature, not that much above. <br /><br />The main "mistake" Lucia Lijegren is making is <a href="http://variable-variability.blogspot.com/2015/09/model-spread-is-not-uncertainty-nwp.html" rel="nofollow">confusing the model spread and the model uncertainty</a>. <br /><br />At least she wants to win debates, which avoids a large part of the utter nonsense we see on WUWT, which are no more than pledges of allegiance. A pledge signals the strongest support of the group, the more ridiculous the claim is.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.com